The online advertising landscape is in constant change - new technologies, new regulations, new users demands re-shape it. Advertisers and publishers can shape it too.
In the future, we expect that:
- New European regulatory requirements for transparency will lead to more press scrutiny.
- There will be greater use of consent, in Europe.
- And fewer adverts that target children.
- But there will be continued opaqueness.
- And demand for change will increase.
- There will be some growth in alternative advertising models, but more to do.
A changing landscape
In 1994 the first banner ad was published. The online advertising ecosystem has changed many times since then and it will change again. To help our work we looked at upcoming changes that could change how people experience advertising.
The online advertising landscape is indeed complex and opaque, but it's also always evolving. New online advertising models are emerging to meet the demand for audience reach while reducing data sharing. And to meet the need of advertisers and publisher for a more effective advertising model.
We know that there are specific changes happening in particular sectors, but deliberately looked at the broader picture.
New European regulatory requirements for transparency will lead to more press scrutiny
Transparency about how and why ads are targeted at people is increasing. This is because of initiatives like Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) and the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA). More transparency will lead to more press scrutiny of advertising practices. This will increase people’s understanding of how online advertising works.
We expect that these European laws will be used as the blueprint for other jurisdictions.
There will be more requests for consent, in Europe
In Europe meaningful consent will become more prominent. This is because regulators and courts are starting to enforce existing laws on online advertising and website design. Meta have recently said that, in Europe, they will start asking for more consent on Facebook and Instagram.
Except for the Tanya O’Carroll v Meta court case there is little sign of similar action to enforce existing laws on online advertising in the UK. The changes in the rest of Europe will create increased demand in the UK.
and fewer adverts that target children
People are increasingly concerned about adverts that target children. Regulators are using measures like the EU DSA and the UK’s Age Appropriate Design Code to tackle this problem.
As a result the number of adverts targeted at children will reduce.
But there will be continued opaqueness
Despite this transparency we expect that there will be significant amounts of opaqueness around the advertising industry.
It will continue to be impossible to reliably track and control the use of personal data across the hundreds of organisations in the industry.
Similarly, advertisers, ad agencies, and publishers will continue to find it hard to understand how users experience adverts and how effective those adverts might be.
Advertisers’ demand for change will still increase
The increased press scrutiny will create more demand for change but advertisers have become increasingly concerned about online advertising too.
Evidence of the effectiveness of current online advertising models is not clear, primarily due to the opaqueness of the industry, but the evidence of its harms is increasing. This includes harm to children, misuse of personal data, amplification of hate speech, and damage to the perception of brands.
As a result advertisers have formed groups to create collective pressure for reform.
There will be some growth in alternative advertising models, but there is more to do
These concerns are leading to an increased demand for alternative approaches to advertising that doe not rely on the sharing of personal data and that creates more brand safety.
For example:
- the New York Times invested in creating a range of new advertising products that provide improved privacy.
- in Scandinavia Kobler, an advertising intermediary that uses a contextual advertising model that does not share personal data, connects over 500 advertisers with publishers in Norway, Sweden and Denmark using a contextual model . Similar ecosystems are growing in France and the Netherlands.
- a number of organisations have suggested a new browser standard, Global Privacy Control, that would allow people to set their privacy preferences in their browser
This emerging wave of alternative advertising models signal the incoming opportunity for fast-moving publishers and advertisers. Change is possible, but there is more to do.